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The Libertarian Party Choices and Chances

I watched a good bit of the balloting, interviews, and speeches yesterday at the Libertarian Party Convention on C-Span.

While there was some fractiousness and resistance to Barr's eventual nomination, I could charitably attribute it to a couple of things. I don't think it's a major stumbling block to them being able to unite and advance their cause.

After the nomination, a reporter interviewed Christine Smith, one of the more "purist" candidates, who rather contradicted what she said in her main speech in the early morning. In that speech, she said she rejected the notion of labels within the party, such as neo-, purist, and conservative libertarians; "We are all Libertarians within the party without distinction."

However, in the interview, she was most vociferous in her denunciation of what she termed "neo-cons who have usurped the Libertarian Party"; though not directly naming Barr, I had the distinct impression that was who she meant.

I think it's a real stretch, if not just wrong, to call Bob Barr a neo-con; perhaps it's his mild support of the battle in Iraq that ires the purist, isolationist Libertarians and leads them to call him a neo-con. Nevertheless, that's one faction of the LP.

The second fracture, though not as pronounced or fatal, is on a more personal level.
The 6th ballot was between Bob Barr and Mary Ruwart, and he won by a slim margin (324-276), though in majority politics, it was a definite mandate, not a squeaker. In the first ballot, they were almost tied, Barr 153, Ruwart 152, with the remainder distributed among six others. Smith, by the way, was knocked out in the first round, with only six votes out of 600. So I might assume by that number that her "purist" faction is rather small (1%), therefore not something of great concern.

Mary Ruwart has been a candidate within the party since 1983, while Barr just joined last year - I think this reflects a division simply between those who have had a personal relationship with Ruwart for lo these many years, a familiar face, and Barr, who represents a national figure outside the party. Perhaps those who voted for him saw his nomination as a chance to expand the party recognition into the fertile field of conservatives outside the party, disenchanted with the GOP.

I half expected Dr. Mary Ruwart to get the vice-presidential nomination, but she declined to be nominated for reasons unclear to me. She strikes me as a very solid, intelligent, consistent person with whom I would be comfortable seeing as the presidential nominee.

The vice-presidential nominee is Wayne Allyn Root. I watched a couple of his speeches, and he reminds me of a salesman coach on speed, with his energy, gesticulations, and rehearsed phrases to get out the vote; almost like Howard Dean in 2004, but more likeable. Perhaps this energetic side of him is reserved for intraparty cheerleading, and when he speaks to those outside the party, he will be a bit more subdued and paced, concentrating on talking about issues rather than invigorating the converted.

The Libertarian Party is on the ballot of 48 states for the Presidential race this year, and they are working to get the other two states (West Virginia and Alabama) to include them as well; hence, not a write-in, invisible party to the average voter. A number of polls by disinterested polltakers put the percentage of people who claim to be libertarians between 12 and 15 percent, not an insubstantial chunk of the citizenry. Perhaps the presence of Barr, a nationally known figure, will boost that figure even higher before the general election.

I'm not actively advocating that you vote for him at this time, but consider a few things - if the Dems continue in their chaos, divided between the intelligentsia, blacks, the far left, the blue dogs, the evangelicals, and the unions, it will be tough for them to unite on one nominee by the general election. A hot August in Denver is going to be exciting to watch (and a good place not to go if you value your safety).

The Republicans are heading for some divisional quarrels, with Ron Paul still holding anywhere between 5% and 15% of the committed delegates in many states, and some Libertarians disenchanted with Barr saying that they will switch parties and vote for Paul in the general election. And of course, there are those conservatives who will or already have left the GOP.

It looks, therefore, that neither the GOP or the Dems will have a sizable majority bloc going into the general election; a likely scenario may be the GOP getting 35%, Dems 35%, Libertarians 25%, and 5% to write-ins of various smaller parties and Donald Duck.
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